fredag, maj 10, 2013

Solidarity With the Syrian Struggle for Dignity and Freedom

Please sign the statement here: https://www.change.org/petitions/solidarity-with-the-syrian-struggle-for-dignity-and-freedom

"We, the undersigned, stand in solidarity with the millions of Syrians who have been struggling for dignity and freedom since March 2011. We call on people of the world to pressure the Syrian regime to end its oppression of and war on the Syrian people. We demand that Bashar al-Asad leave immediately without excuses so that Syria can begin a speedy recovery towards a democratic future.
Since March 2011, Asad’s regime has steadily escalated its violence against the Syrian people, launching Scud missiles, using weapons banned by the Geneva Convention such as cluster bombs and incendiary munitions, and using aerial bombardment. The regime has detained and tortured tens of thousands of people and committed untold massacres. It has refused political settlements that do not include Asad in power, and it has polarized the society through strategic acts of violence and by sowing seeds of division. The regime has also, since the early days of the uprising, sought to internationalize the crisis in order to place it within geopolitical battles that would only strengthen the regime. Staying true to the logics of an authoritarian regime, Asad could never accept the legitimate demands of the Syrian people for freedom and dignity. Thus, there is no hope for a free, unified, and independent Syria so long as his regime remains in power.
This is a revolt that was sparked by the children of Deraa and the sit-ins and demonstrations of the youth in the cities, the peasants of the rural areas, and the dispossessed and marginalized of Syria. It is they who rallied non-violently through protests and songs and chants, before the regime’s brutal crackdown. Since then, the regime has pushed for the militarization of the Syrian nonviolent movement. As a result, young men took up arms, first out of self-defense. Lately, this has resulted in attempts by some groups fighting the regime to force a climate of polarization, and negation of the Other politically, socially and culturally. These acts that are in themselves against the revolution for freedom and dignity.
Yet, the revolution for freedom and dignity remains steadfast. It is for this reason that we, the undersigned, appeal to those of you in the global civil society, not to ineffective and manipulative governments, to defend the gains of the Syrian revolutionaries, and to spread our vision: freedom from authoritarianism and support of Syrians’ revolution as an integral part of the struggles for freedom and dignity in the region and around the world.
The fight in Syria is an extension of the fight for freedom regionally and worldwide. It cannot be divorced from the struggles of the Bahrainis, Egyptians, Tunisians, Libyans, Yemenis, and other peoples who have revolted against oppression and authoritarianism as well as against those seeking to usurp or destroy the uprisings and divert them for their own agendas. It is connected to the Palestinians’ struggle for freedom, dignity and equality. The revolution in Syria is a fundamental part of the North African revolutions, yet, it is also an extension of the Zapatista revolt in Mexico, the landless movement in Brazil, the European and North American revolts against neoliberal exploitation, and an echo of Iranian, Russian, and Chinese movements for freedom.
The Syrian revolution has confronted a world upside down, one where states that were allegedly friends of the Arabs such as Russia, China, and Iran have stood in support of the slaughter of people, while states that never supported democracy or independence, especially the US and their Gulf allies, have intervened in support of the revolutionaries. They have done so with clear cynical self interest. In fact, their intervention tried to crush and subvert the uprising, while selling illusions and deceptive lies.
Given that regional and world powers have left the Syrian people alone, we ask you to lend your support to those Syrians still fighting for justice, dignity, and freedom, and who have withstood the deafening sounds of the battle, as well as rejected the illusions sold by the enemies of freedom.
As intellectuals, academics, activists, artists, concerned citizens, and social movements we stand in solidarity with the Syrian people to emphasize the revolutionary dimension of their struggle and to prevent the geopolitical battles and proxy wars taking place in their country. We ask you to lend your support to all Syrians from all backgrounds asking for a peaceful transition of power, one where all Syrians can have a voice and decide their own fate. We also reject all attempts of any group to monopolize power, and to impose its own agenda, or to impose unitary or homogenous identities on the Syrian people. We ask you to support those people and organizations on the ground that still uphold the ideals for a free and democratic Syria.
Our page

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Global-Campaign-of-Solidarity-with-the-Syrian-Revolution/147353662105485
Day of Global Solidarity with the Syrian revolution
https://www.facebook.com/events/176697015820498/"

tirsdag, maj 07, 2013

Heller ikke Israels angreb er et argument for intervention i Syrien



Det skorter ikke på dårlige argumenter for en militær indgriben i den væbnede syriske opstand. I kølvandet på de israelske indfald mod Damaskus i forrige uge, har debatten fået ny vind i seglene. Flere iagttagere så det som et eksempel på, at en »flyveforbudszone« i Syrien er teknisk gennemførlig.

»Israelerne synes at kunne trænge igennem [det syriske luftrum] forholdsvis let« sagde den republikanske senator John Mccain i Fox News i søndags. Tilsvarende spørger den amerikanske Mellemøstenekspert Steven A. Cook, hvordan det kan være, at Israel kan bryde Syriens luftforsvar helt ustraffet, mens amerikanerne tøver grundet Assad-styrets påståede forsvarsevner,

At det israelske luftangreb formentlig fandt sted fra libanesisk luftrum, er dog kun en mindre revne i deres logik (NYTimes-journalisten David Sanger, som brød historien, fortæller i et radiointerview: "it looks like these strikes were done largely from Lebanon or off shore"). Den amerikanske sikkerhedsanalytiker Daniel Trombly dementerer sammenligningen af en amerikansk flyveforbudszone med det israelske angreb i en forsigtig analyse:

»Om noget«, skriver han, »giver de israelske indfald et nyttigt indblik i alt det, som en flyveforbudszone ikke vil eller kan være.« Det lader sig ikke gøre at etablere en flyveforbudszone med Israels seneste angreb som eksempel, »fordi disse indfald hviler på en minimering af flyvetiden over det syriske luftrum for netop at undgå en luftbatalje. Hvis en flyveforbudzone skal være effektiv, skal den gøre præcis det modsatte.« Det betyder ikke, at det ikke kan lade sig gøre at etablere en flyveforbudzone rent teknisk, men at også andre faktorer og komplikationer bør inddrages i vurderingen. Trombly advarer, at man med fraværet af en velbegrundet analyse om, hvad en militær indgriben vil afstedkomme, risikererer at »forværre situationen for syrerene væsentligt.«

(Apropos velbegrundede analyser af ulemperne ved en intervention, se: Dexter Filkins, "What Should Obama Do About Syria?", New Yorker Magazine)

mandag, april 01, 2013

Tayekh's paranoid red lines for Iran

(More can be added to Tayekhs claims but I am in no mood, unless I'm questioned. The following is a copy/paste of a facebook post of mine.)

In which Ray Tayekh repeats the same tired scare story, most elements of which have been entirely debunked over and over again to the point of tediousness.

1. How on earth can Iran build a 'secret facility' without being noticed when it transports huge amounts of water, centrifuges, construction material and so on? That's untenable to say the least.

2. Notice how claim no. (1) runs exactly counter to the claim that the CIA discovered the Qom Facility from satellite images.

3. Tayekh writes, that "the lax nature of the NPT’s basic inspection regime makes it an unreliable guide to detecting persistent diversion of small quantities of fuel from an industrial-size installation." That's a known problem of "dual-use technology", and the proposal to fix it is a verifiable fissile material cut-off treaty or a regional nuclear weapon's free zone, but the US won't hear a word of it!

4. Tayekh's claim is that Iran can slowly produce a weapon out of it's low enriched uranium. That's a tall accusation with exactly zero evidence to support it. In fact, in the last thirty years there has been an accumulation to the point of superabundance of positive evidence to the contrary.

5. So, even as the Iranian nuclear program is being subjected to the most paranoid 24/7 on-site surveillance in history, and despite the IAEA has accounted and tracked for Iran's fissile material, and despite ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS people like Tayekh STILL accuse Iran of being on the brink of acquiring a ghost bomb in a secret facility.

The best red line for a nuclear Iran - The Washington Post

søndag, marts 31, 2013

Was Israel behind the leaked AP-diagram on Iranian nuclear test?

I know what you're thinking: of course they were.

According to the AP Big Story: "The diagram was leaked by officials from a country critical of Iran's atomic program to bolster their arguments that Iran's nuclear program must be halted... The officials provided the diagram only on condition that they and their country not be named."

But it would be interesting to know for sure who that country was through documentation. According to Iran expert Meir Javedanfar, anonymous Israeli security officials told Israeli news paper Maariv, that Iran carried out a simulation of a nuclear weapon's test in 2012.

Javedanfar summarizes the Hebrew report which cites “security officials who are at the forefront of the struggle against Iran” as such:
1. Between July and September this year Iran will reach a bomb 
2. Iran’s nuclear program does not lag far behind that of North Korea
3. At the end of 2012 Iran carried out the simulation of a nuclear explosion
Iran’s nuclear program is progressing at a breakneck speed every day.
The security officials also told Maariv that sanctions are not working, and that despite their effectiveness, intelligence operations in Iran are not stopping Iran’s nuclear drive.
(source: Report: In 2012 Iran Simulated a Nuclear Explosion | The Iran-Israel Observer)
I think there is a fair chance that these "security officials" are simply citing the AP Big Story, which was by the way thoroughly and immediately debunked. It doesn't mean that these are the very officials that fed AP the diagram, nor even that the country was Israel. But it does tell us, that Israeli security officials (like other propaganda officials of other countries), plant bogus stories in national and international media to promote political agendas.

As for the rest of the three points, Javedanfar dispels the fuss:
As we know the North Korean nuclear model entails deciding to make a bomb and actually going ahead and building one as well as testing it. So basically these unnamed security officials are saying that Iran has decided to make a bomb. So was the IDF Intelligence Chief Kochavi lying publicly at the recent 2013 Herzliya conference where he stated among other things that ["Iran has not yet decided to build the bomb."?] 
Or is it possible that these unnamed security officials have an ax to grind because Obama did not commit to attacking Iran? (...)
To say that Iran is not far behind North Korea flies in the face of current IDF and US assessment that Iran has not yet decided to make a bomb.

**

also, check here:
AP Believes it Found Evidence of Iran's Work on Nuclear Weapons, Glenn Greenwald, The Guardian

AP's dangerous Iran hoax demands an accounting and explanation, Glenn Greenwald, The Guardian

fredag, marts 29, 2013

NYTimes: Simple physics. No agency. Syria's War did it

Yesterday, The New York Times had the following headline

What is one supposed to make of it? That there is a new group calling itself "Syria's War"? Or is Syria's war itself behind atrocities, capable of invading and bombing?

tirsdag, marts 26, 2013

US State Dep Denies Birth Defects in Iraq a Cause of War

"[The] researchers did not account for whether mothers had adequate nutrition or access to medical care during pregnancy, and they did not always consider whether the parents were cousins."
Those are the words of the U.S. State Department according to ABC News this Monday in an article casting doubt on whether or not the birth defects are the result of war pollutants. The article headline goes: "Birth Defects Plague Iraq, But Cause Unknown". Let's call it bad editing and move on.

There is enough out there to suggest that consanguineous reproduction carries risks of genetic disorders, but it hardly explains the deformities of newborn babies in Iraq nor the sharp increase thereof. While genetic factors are always at play, the explanation here is environmental. Malnutrition is highly likely in Iraq, but contamination alone doesn't answer the "high levels of lead, mercury and uranium levels in [the] hair, nails and teeth" of the parents. It came from somewhere and was caused by something, and those elements happen to be "integral parts of war ammunition".

The story was initially revealed by Patrick Cockburn in The Independent, but didn't receive much attention. Since then more studies have been published.

More research is needed
The need for further studies is evident (after all "only 80% of Iraq ha[s] so far been surveyed"). For example it is not known exactly what kinds of weapons the US deployed. The actual relationship between the sudden increase in health problems and the US conduct has yet to be mapped, perhaps never to be so definitely.

The World Health Organisation and the Iraqi health ministry are yet to publish their study, which has been due for a long time, and has apparently been postponed till Spring. The study is severely restricted due to a self-imposed design. Here's from their FAQ:
What is this study about?
The study has been conducted to assess the prevalence of congenital birth defects in children among the Iraqi population in nine governorates.
 (...)
 Is the study looking at a possible link between prevalence of child birth defects and the use of depleted uranium?
No, absolutely not. The study is only looking at the prevalence of congenital birth defects in selected governorates.
 If prevalence of these defects is high, will that be evidence thatdepleted uranium has been used in some or all of the governorates?
Since the issue of associating congenital birth defects with exposure to depleted uranium has not been included the scope of this particular study, establishing a link between the congenital birth defects prevalence and exposure to depleted uranium would require further research.


Lest we forget
In 2003, US officials from departments of defense and health, were busily promoting falsehoods about the use of depleted uranium: "As far as health effects on children, we do know... that if depleted uranium is external to the body there is no health effect."

 

Interactive graphic of the CIA’s nine-year drone campaign in Pakistan.

Via The Bureau of Investigative Journalism:
A new interactive graphic, which uses the Bureau’s drone data, has brought a fresh perspective to the CIA’s nine-year drone campaign in Pakistan.
A team of developers has pulled together every known drone strike and casualty from data provided by the Bureau and New America Foundation. This data has been represented in an interactive timeline which allows the viewer to see how the campaign builds over time, as well as the number of people killed.
Pitch Interactive, a California-based commercial web-development studio, has produced the interactive as part of a pro-bono programme.
The project, Out of Sight, Out of Mind [<---link to graphic], aims to capture the scale and human cost of the drone war in Pakistan through its visual representation of the CIA’s covert Pakistan drone war from the first event in 2004 to the latest strike. (...)

Lesson from Iraq for Syria

"[Toby] Dodge puts quickly to rest the notion that Iraq’s unique ethnic and sectarian mix—about 60% Shia Muslim, 20% Sunni Muslim and 15% Kurdish, along with many smaller minorities—predestined the country to strife. He argues persuasively that the underlying cause of the bloodletting, which still continues on a reduced scale, was the collapse of the Iraqi state. This created the social stress and acceptance of violence that allowed what he calls “ethnic entrepreneurs”—political manipulators of sectarians fears—to flourish. It also took away the brakes and levers of government control. The decline of the Iraqi state began in the 1990s, when UN sanctions against the Saddam Hussein regime reduced its capacity to deliver services... A vast purge of members of Saddam’s ubiquitous Baath party, combined with the empowerment of parvenu politicians who packed ministerial fiefs with loyalists under an American-endorsed system of sectarian spoils, further stripped state institutions of competence."
Economist: Iraq War - Decade of Regret

Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism. By Toby Dodge. Routledge; 216 pages; $26.95. Buy from Amazon.com

Also read Karl Sharros great piece in reply to Aaron David Miller's cheap analysis:
The US/Western policies in Iraq leading up to the invasion did not weaken the regime, but they did undermine the state, and they are not one and the same thing. So why was the same template used in Syria in response to the regime’s violent repression of the uprising? Consider: sanctions, mixed-messages of support and broken promises to the opposition, and a policy of isolating a regime it had been until very recently trying to open up to. And looking at the results so far, Syria seems to be heading in a similar direction to that of Iraq.
There is a point of principle here, when Western policies consistently disregard the sovereignty of Arab states, it is pretty rich from Miller to attribute the decline of those states to internal lack of coherence solely. But a fundamental problem here is that Miller, and this is an endemic attitude of western policy circles, seems oblivious to the nature of that interventionist role. In fact, he describes it exclusively in passive terms: “As for the United States, we're stuck in the middle of this mess.”

(...)
Nobody can deny that there is a really ugly side to the rise of sectarian identities, but they need to be understood against the backdrop of the decline of universalist ideologies not as permanent features of Arab society and politics. Miller again: “When these societies undergo stress … it's loyalty to the tribe, family, sect, and religious group that provides the primary source of identity and organization.” This is true, to a certain extent, of the recent past, but it ignores nearly a century of Arab politics in which that wasn’t the case.

Front company for Jordan's air force caught red handed


"This is all lies," says Muhammad Jubour of Jordanian International Air Cargo. "We never did any such thing." Unfortunately for the spokesman, the Times had specific air traffic data showing flights by the airline's Ilyushin-76MF planes to and from Croatia. How did Jubour respond to that?
This is the secret airline that's reportedly flooding Syria with weapons | FP Passport

Switching the language

I've decided as of this moment, to turn this primarily into an English blog. All hail the queen.

fredag, marts 15, 2013

"Costs of War" - ny rapport om krig fra Brown Uni



Udpluk fra research-teamets konklusioner (med mine fremhævelser):
  • Our tally of all of the war’s dead — including soldiers, militants, police, contractors, journalists, humanitarian workers and civilians — shows that at least 330,000 people have died due to direct war violence.
  • Indirect deaths from the wars, including those related to malnutrition, damaged health infrastructure, and environmental degradation, must also be tallied. In previous wars, these deaths have far outnumbered deaths from combat and that is likely the case here as well.
  • 200,000 civilians have been killed as a result of the fighting at the hands of all parties to the conflict, and more will die in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan as the violence continues. But most observers acknowledge that the number of civilians killed has been undercounted. The true number of civilian dead may be much larger when an adequate assessment is made [check here].
  • While we know how many US soldiers have died in the wars (over 6,600), what is startling is what we don’t know about the levels of injury and illness in those who have returned from the wars. New disability claims continue to pour into the VA, with over 750,000 disability claims already approved.[2] Many deaths and injuries among US contractors have not been identified. 
  • Millions of people have been displaced indefinitely and are living in grossly inadequate conditions. The number of war refugees and displaced persons --7.4 million-- is equivalent to all of the people of Connecticut and Oregon fleeing their homes.
  • Despite the US military withdrawal, Iraq’s health, infrastructure, and education systems remain war-devastated.
  • The armed conflict in Pakistan, which the US helps the Pakistani military fight by funding, equipping and training them, is in many ways more intense than in Afghanistan although it receives less coverage in the US news.
  • The United States is at war in Yemen. During 2012, the Obama administration quickened its pace of drone strikes in the country. 
  • The wars have been accompanied by erosions in civil liberties at home and human rights violations abroad.
  • The human and economic costs of these wars will continue for decades, some costs not peaking until mid-century.
  • The US federal price tag for the Iraq war — including an estimate for veterans' medical and disability costs into the future — is about $2.2 trillion dollars. The cost for both Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan is going to be close to $4 trillion, not including future interest costs on borrowing for the wars. Many of the wars’ costs are invisible to Americans, buried in a variety of budgets, and so have not been counted or assessed. For example, while most people think the Pentagon war appropriations are equivalent to the wars’ budgetary costs, the true numbers are twice that, and the full economic cost of the wars much larger yet.
  • As with former US wars, the costs of paying for veterans’ care into the future will be a sizable portion of the full costs of the war.
  • The ripple effects on the US economy have also been significant, including job loss and interest rate increases, and those effects have been underappreciated.
  • While it was promised that the US invasions would bring democracy to Afghanistan and Iraq, both continue to rank low in global rankings of political freedom, with warlords continuing to hold power in Afghanistan with US support, and Iraqi communities are more segregated today than before by gender and ethnicity as a result of the war.
  • Women in both countries are essentially closed out of political power and high rates of female unemployment and widowhood have further eroded their condition.
  • During the US troop withdrawal from Iraq, President Obama said that the United States military was leaving behind a “sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq.” This was not only an inaccurate account of Iraq’s situation at that time, but the country has since become less secure and politically stable. Although violence in Iraq has declined since its peak, there has been a steady increase in the number of attacks over the last year. [3]
  • Serious and compelling alternatives to war were scarcely considered in the aftermath of 9/11 or in the discussion about war against Iraq. Some of those alternatives are still available to the US.
Kilde: http://costsofwar.org

De har en separat rapport om Irakkrigen. Her er et udpluk (med mine fremhævelser):
  • More than 70 percent of those who died of direct war violence in Iraq have been civilians — an estimated 134,000. This number does not account for indirect deaths due to increased vulnerability to disease or injury as a result of war-degraded conditions. That number is estimated to be several times higher [check here].
  • The Iraq War will ultimately cost U.S. taxpayers at least $2.2 trillion. Because the Iraq war appropriations were funded by borrowing, cumulative interest through 2053 could amount to more than $3.9 trillion.
  • Th $2.2 trillion figure includes care for veterans who were injured in the war in Iraq, which will cost the United States almost $500 billion through 2053.
  • The total of U.S. service members killed in Iraq is 4,488. At least 3,400 U.S. contractors have died as well, a number often under-reported.
  • Terrorism in Iraq increased dramatically as a result of the invasion and tactics and fighters were exported to Syria and other neighboring countries.
  • Iraq’s health care infrastructure remains devastated from sanctions and war. More than half of Iraq’s medical doctors left the country during the 2000s, and tens of thousands of Iraqi patients are forced to seek health care outside the country.
  • The $60 billion spent on reconstruction for Iraq has not gone to rebuilding infrastructure such as roads, health care, and water treatment systems, but primarily to the military and police. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction has found massive fraud, waste, and abuse of reconstruction funds.
Kilde: http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2013/03/warcosts 


torsdag, marts 14, 2013

Er det en trussel mod det iranske regime at fejre nytåret?

Den politiske diskurs i Iran kan være svær at forstå med danske briller - og i det hele taget. Hvordan kan fejring af det persiske nytår (Nowruz) være en trussel mod den gejstlige orden? Den amerikansk-iranske journalist Arash Karami giver eksempler på præstestyrets vrede over, at præsident Mahmoud Ahmadinejad byder det iranske nytår velkommen på Al-Monitor's Iran-blog, Iran-Pulse:
"Ayatollah Safi Golpayagani asked “how can welcoming Norouz be Islamic? Isn’t music and dancing […] that occurred at this ceremony against sacred Islamic laws?” He continued, “they are mocking the commandments of Islam and showing irreverence.” He urged political leaders to take action against this latest celebration by the president, adding that “a system [of government] that has come about through the blood of thousands of martyrs cannot show weakness against these reckless and un-Islamic deeds.”
Leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran have had a difficult relationship with pre-Islamic festivals. The president has been able to capitalize on this issue. Lately he has been using the word “Spring” as a kind of campaign slogan to promote his close aid Mashaei as the next president of Iran. The Persian New Year falls on the first day of spring. On Feb. 25 it was even reported that the mayor of Tehran would forbid the advertisement of “Spring” on billboards and public spaces." Ahmadinejad Criticized for Welcoming New Year
Svaret ligger i en rodfæstet nationalromantisk identificering med det oldpersiske rige og den præ-islamiske kulturarv. Det iranske nytår er ældre end islam, og ved at appellere til den særligt ”iranske åndsretning” og ”iranske islam”, sigter Ahmadinejad og hans konsorter på at vinde "hearts and minds" bredt hos iranerne.  

Disse initiativer er som taget ud af Shahens symbolpolitiske drejebog. Det har givet anledning til megen hysteri i præsteskabet og beskyldninger om ”falsk og kættersk tro”, at ”frimurerne har overtaget regeringen”, osv. Ahmadinejad's kontroversielle højre hånd Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei har engang provokerende svaret kritikerne med bemærkningen: ”Nogle mennesker kan ikke forstå musikken, og derfor erklærer de den haram”.

”Den fromme og revolutionære befolkning i Iran er bekymrede over, at der i de sidste flere dage har været en hånd i regeringen [dvs.: Mashaei], som prøver at udskifte de islamiske værdier […] med falske principper”, har den konservative avis Kayhan skrevet, som også beskylder regeringen for ”liberalisme, nationalisme, opposition til islamiske værdier og symboler...”.

Emballagen kan altså tolkes som en nationalistisk polemik, der er henvendt til middelklassen og Irans voksende yngre befolkningsgruppe. Det er en diskurs, der tidligere var at spore hos reformvenlige elementer dog uden den samme kontrovers, det har skabt i dag. Præsident Khatami sagde engang i parlamentet, som svar på kritik fra den eneste zoroastriske repræsentant: ”Vi er jo alle zoroastrianere” – en oldgammel persisk tro.

Det er ikke første gang, at Ahmadinejad gør dette. Hans regering arrangerede en udstilling af Kyroskrøniken i Teherans arkæologiske museum til stor fanfare - en cylinderformet sten med indgraveret akkadisk tekst fra det achæmenidiske dynasti, ca. 600–529 fvt, der for øjeblikket tourer rundt på amerikanske museer. Man valgte samtidig at fejre det iranske nytår (Nowruz) offentligt i Persepolis - den ceremonielle hovedstad i det achæmenidiske imperium (ca. 550-330 f.Kr.).

Også på den religiøse front, er Ahmadinejad på spidsen. Den religiøse og politiske diskurs er svært adskillelige. Det er også et rum "hvor alt foregår i hentydede beskyldninger og slørede trusler." (Rasmus Christian Elling, Information, 1/3/12 'ulvenes krig').
Af frygt for Ahmadinejads tendens til at kritisere selv de allerhelligste vendte præsteskabet ham ryggen. Hans støtter anklages nu for korruption, trues med stævninger i parlamentet og beskyldes for alt fra at udøve heksekunst til at være frimurere.
Mahdi’isme, som det også kaldes, er den messianske retorik, som Ahmadinejad anvender, når han tager bladet fra Den Øverste Leders mund, og forudsiger, at Mahdis tilbagevenden er nær (Den tolvte imam). Flere tolker det som en trussel mod den gejstlige orden, 'Velâyate Faqih', hvis eksistensberettigelse hviler på Mahdi’ens dennesidige fravær. (Det er ikke helt uidentisk med George Bush’s kristelige genfødsel og hans hinsidige rådgivere på tærsklen til Irakkrigen.)

Ahmadinejad har engang sagt, at ”der også er andre [end Den Øverste Leder, altså: Ahmainejad selv], som er i løbende og direkte kontakt med [Imam Mahdi]”. Denne protestantiske opposition er heller ikke gået ubemærket hen, men besvaret med en lind strøm af trusler fra den konservative elite og dele af Revolutionsgarden.

”Dem, der ønsker at skade det politiske system [dvs. modsætte sig Den Øverste Leder] bør være bevidste om, at Basij [en landsdækkende paramilitær milits] er mere forberedt end nogensinde på at beskytte revolutionen”, lyder det fra Revolutionsgardens ledelse, der i maj 2012 anholdte dusinvis af Ahmadinejads embedsmænd for såkaldt ”hekseri” – en eufemisme for afvigelser fra republikkens centrale dogme, nemlig Den Øverste Leders guddommelige autoritet.

'Hekseriet' havde ophav i distributionen af en kortfilm, der proklamerer, at den tolvte imams tilbagevenden er nær, og at Ayatollah Khamenei, Hizbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah og ingen andre end præsident Ahmadinejad selv er den genopståede imams fortrolige ledsagere -- føj hertil den seneste indlemmelse af Venezuelas afdøde præsident Hugo Chavéz på listen.

Af den iranske karikaturtegner Mana Neyestani, 2013

søndag, februar 24, 2013

Marc Lynch: Plan B i Syrien


"Currently, military aid to the rebels flows through Gulf and regional governments and private citizens directly to local commanders and fighting forces, while humanitarian aid is channeled primarily through NGOs operating with the consent of the Syrian government. This generates a distinctive political economy of war that has distinctly pernicious effects -- encouraging the fragmentation of the opposition, deepening geographic and political divides, discouraging a coherent political strategy, and creating rent-seeking incentives for ongoing warfare. The uncoordinated, often competitive, financing of favored proxies by outside players has actively contributed to emergent warlordism, intra-rebellion clashes, and the absence of a coherent political strategy."
Here’s Your Plan B - By Marc Lynch | Foreign Policy

Når demokrati forvaltes af private tyrannier


"Giving or raising $500,000 or more puts donors on a national advisory board for Mr. Obama’s group and the privilege of attending quarterly meetings with the president, along with other meetings at the White House. Moreover, the new cash demands on Mr. Obama’s top donors and bundlers come as many of them are angling for appointments to administration jobs or ambassadorships."
Obama’s Backers Seek Big Donors to Press Agenda 
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